Diesel imports from India into West Africa have surged to unprecedented levels in recent months, underscoring the region’s continued heavy dependence on overseas refined petroleum products despite years of policy pledges and investments aimed at boosting local refining capacity.
According to latest trade data and shipping trackers analysed by energy consultancies and market intelligence firms, West African countries imported over 1.2 million metric tonnes of diesel from India in Q4 2025 alone, the highest quarterly volume ever recorded from a single origin country.
Nigeria accounted for nearly 60% of the total, importing an estimated 720,000 tonnes in the last quarter of 2025, even as the Dangote Refinery ramps up petrol production but has yet to fully stabilise diesel output.
Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal, and Togo also saw sharp increases, with India now supplying over 70% of their diesel requirements in some months.
Average freight costs from India (Mundra/Jamnagar to West African ports) have remained competitive at $25–35 per metric tonne, making Indian diesel cheaper than alternatives from Europe or the Middle East despite longer sailing distances.
The surge comes despite repeated government commitments across West Africa to reduce import dependence: Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery (650,000 bpd capacity) has prioritised petrol and jet fuel since late 2024, with diesel production still scaling up.
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Ghana’s Tema Oil Refinery and Côte d’Ivoire’s SIR refinery continue to operate far below capacity due to feedstock shortages, high maintenance costs, and debt overhang.
Regional leaders have repeatedly promised “energy independence” through modular refineries, rehabilitation of old plants, and new investments yet import volumes keep rising.
Industry analysts and energy economists say the trend exposes structural challenges: Chronic under-investment in domestic refining infrastructure.
Preference for imported diesel due to quicker turnaround, better quality consistency, and favourable credit terms from Indian suppliers.
Slow progress on crude-for-product swap deals and local crude refining agreements.
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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) and Dangote Refinery have both promised that diesel self-sufficiency is “imminent,” with full-scale production expected in Q2 2026.
Meanwhile, consumer prices for diesel across West Africa remain elevated, with pump prices in Nigeria averaging ₦1,450–1,600 per litre and Ghana around GHS 15.50 per litre as of mid-January 2026.
The record Indian diesel inflows highlight that for now West Africa’s energy security still depends heavily on foreign refineries, even as the continent boasts the world’s largest single-train refinery in Lagos.
By Ogungbayi Beedee Adeyemi
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