By Ogungbayi Beedee Adeyemi / posted September 3, 2025
Contrary to claims by the Tinubu administration that economic reforms are stabilizing the naira, the currency’s performance in the black market tells a more complex story, with rates holding steady at around ₦1,540 per dollar this week. Critics argue that this marginal stability masks deeper economic challenges, as Nigerians continue to face soaring inflation and diminished purchasing power.
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Data from parallel market traders in Lagos and Abuja shows the naira’s black market selling rate at ₦1,540 on Monday, September 1, with buying at ₦1,524. On Tuesday, September 2, the selling rate remained unchanged, while buying dipped slightly to ₦1,520. By Wednesday, September 3, selling held at ₦1,540, with buying at ₦1,528. While these figures reflect a slight improvement from late August highs above ₦1,550, the naira remains significantly weaker than its pre-floatation value of around ₦750 in June 2023.
President Bola Tinubu has touted his administration’s reforms, including the naira’s floatation and fuel subsidy removal, as drivers of economic progress, claiming Nigeria has met its 2025 revenue targets early and reduced the fiscal deficit to 3.0% of GDP. Government officials, including Special Adviser Bayo Onanuga, assert that international confidence in the naira is growing, citing its increasing acceptance abroad. Tinubu’s team projects inflation will fall from 34.6% to 15% by year-end, driven by enhanced food production and export diversification.
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However, economists and citizens paint a bleaker picture. The naira’s current rate, while stable, is far from its historical strength, and the 34.6% inflation rate continues to erode livelihoods. Fuel prices, now exceeding ₦900 per liter, have fueled cost-of-living increases, hitting small businesses and households hard. “The so-called stability is an illusion,” said Chinedu Okoye, a Lagos-based trader. “We’re selling dollars at ₦1,540 because demand is low people can’t afford to buy.”
Analysts question the sustainability of the naira’s performance, pointing to Nigeria’s oil dependency and persistent forex shortages. While the government predicts a potential strengthening to ₦1,400-₦1,500 by year-end, reliant on favorable oil prices and remittances, skeptics highlight structural issues like insecurity and poor infrastructure that hamper agricultural and export growth. The gap between official and black-market rates, with the official rate at around ₦1,537, further undermines confidence in the Central Bank’s interventions.
Public sentiment reflects growing frustration. “Tinubu says the economy is working, but for who?” asked Aisha Musa, a market vendor in Abuja. “Food prices are choking us, and the naira is still too weak.” Critics argue that the administration’s focus on macroeconomic gains revenue growth, fiscal discipline ignores the immediate needs of Nigerians facing unemployment and rising costs.
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As the government doubles down on its reform agenda, the naira’s fragile stability in the parallel market remains a contentious issue. Without addressing systemic challenges and prioritizing relief for ordinary citizens, Tinubu’s economic policies risk falling short of their promised transformation.