Nigeria’s Defection Tsunami: Racing Towards a One Party Nightmare?

DDNews Editorial By Ogungbayi Adeyemi Beedee
Adeyemi@ddnewsonline.com

In the swirling cauldron of Nigerian politics, where loyalty is as fleeting as a politician’s promise, a chilling question hangs in the air: Is Nigeria inexorably sliding into the abyss of a one-party state? The past few months have witnessed an unprecedented gale of defections, with governors, lawmakers, and party chieftains abandoning opposition strongholds like the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP) for the welcoming arms of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). This isn’t mere political musical chairs it’s a calculated erosion of democratic pluralism that threatens to suffocate the very oxygen of our republic.

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Consider the seismic shifts just in recent weeks. Taraba State Governor Agbu Kefas, elected under the PDP banner in 2023, is poised to formally defect to the APC tomorrow, November 19 a move that has already prompted the resignation of the state PDP chairman and the defection of the assembly speaker alongside 15 PDP lawmakers. In Kogi, former Governor Idris Wada, a PDP stalwart, crossed over with a retinue of opposition figures, hailing it as a “boost” to APC fortunes, as echoed by current Governor Ahmed Usman Ododo. Enugu’s Governor Peter Mbah made headlines in October by ditching his party for the APC, a defection personally received by Vice President Kashim Shettima, who crowed about “cracks in the opposition camp.” And that’s not all Plateau lawmakers and other PDP heavyweights have followed suit, turning what was once a multiparty mosaic into a monotonous APC monochrome.

These aren’t isolated tremors; they’re aftershocks of a deeper malaise. Even within the APC, voices like Senator Ali Ndume warn of an impending “implosion” as the party swells with “displaced politicians” who bring little value beyond their baggage of opportunism. The pattern is clear: Opposition figures, sensing the PDP’s internal convulsions and the LP’s post-2023 fractures, are jumping ship not out of conviction, but survival instinct.

But why this exodus? Peel back the layers, and the answers are as unpalatable as they are predictable. Nigerian political parties, across the board, are ideological vacuums hollow shells where manifestos gather dust and loyalty is auctioned to the highest bidder. Defections aren’t driven by policy epiphanies or a sudden alignment with progressive agendas; they’re fueled by the lure of federal largesse, patronage networks, and cold, hard cash. Analysts point to “greed” and “political uncertainty” as prime movers, with defectors chasing the resources only the ruling party can dispense think juicy contracts, security votes, and unchecked access to the national till. Rare is the defector who cites “the interest of their people” without a smirk; more often, it’s self-help disguised as altruism, a bid to “develop their future” at the expense of collective progress. The PDP’s godfatherism, the LP’s leadership voids, and even the APC’s internal cabals exacerbate this internal democracy is a myth, replaced by imposition and exclusion that pushes members to bolt.

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This money-bag frenzy doesn’t just hollow out our domestic discourse; it paints Nigeria on the global canvas as a grotesque caricature of corruption, where pecuniary pursuits eclipse human lives. International observers, from Transparency International to Western chancelleries, increasingly view our politics through the lens of endemic graft a system where defections are less about ideology and more about dollar trails, eroding trust and deterring investment. Nigeria’s dismal 140th ranking on the 2024 Corruption Perceptions Index (score: 26/100) underscores this, signaling to the world a nation where bribery permeates customs, elections, and security apparatus. Chatham House reports highlight how such rot undermines economic growth and public faith, while foreign investors balk at the “fantastically corrupt” label that lingers from past diplomatic barbs. The tragic execution of Brigadier General M. Uba by ISWAP fighters just yesterday captured during a Borno ambush, initially denied by the Army, and confirmed via a grisly video exemplifies the peril: Resources siphoned into political patronage leave our troops under-equipped and exposed, prioritizing politicians’ war chests over soldiers’ lives. Foreign partners, already wary of funneling aid into this vortex, now question our commitment to counter-terrorism, viewing defections-fueled instability as a direct threat to regional security. In their eyes, Nigeria isn’t a rising giant but a cautionary tale of how elite avarice fuels jihadist boldness.

The cost to Nigeria’s future politics? Catastrophic. This defection frenzy is paving a highway to one-party dominance, where the APC’s monopoly stifles competition, breeds complacency, and invites unchecked power. Without a robust opposition, accountability evaporates: Who will grill the executive on economic woes, insecurity, or policy failures? The 2023 elections, which saw Peter Obi’s LP shatter the APC-PDP duopoly with over 6 million votes, now feel like a distant dream as opposition cohesion crumbles. Heading into 2027, voters face a barren choice ratify the incumbent machine or splintered alternatives risking voter apathy, electoral legitimacy crises, and a slide toward authoritarianism reminiscent of the Abacha era. Yet, luring everyone to the ruling party offers no ironclad guarantee of victory; history shows bloated coalitions fracture under their own weight, and a disillusioned electorate especially the youth can unleash unforeseen backlashes, as seen in the Arab Spring or Kenya’s 2022 youth revolt. Governance suffers too: Defections disrupt legislative stability, fragment policy continuity, and amplify thug culture, where state governors fund armed groups to muscle out rivals.

This plague afflicts all parties equally. The PDP, once a behemoth, is hemorrhaging from godfather squabbles and failure to reinvent post-2015. The LP, buoyed by Obi’s youth appeal, now reels from leadership rifts and co-optation attempts. Even the APC, bloated with newcomers, risks internal implosion as old guards clash with “displaced” arrivals. The common thread? A dearth of ideology that turns politics into a zero-sum game of personal aggrandizement, not public service.

We must not and cannot allow Nigeria to tumble into this one-party trap. History screams warnings: Single-party regimes foster corruption, suppress dissent, and ossify innovation, leaving citizens voiceless and economies adrift. Multiparty democracy, for all its flaws, ensures checks, balances, and the marketplace of ideas essential for progress. To avert this fate, reforms are imperative: Strengthen anti-defection laws with real penalties, enforce internal party primaries, and tie mandates to constituencies via recall mechanisms.

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For the young political gladiators eyeing the arena the fresh graduates, activists, and entrepreneurs who fueled Obi’s “Obidient” movement here’s the clarion call: Forge ahead with unyielding principle. Build or join parties anchored in ideology social democracy for equity, liberalism for freedoms, or progressivism for innovation not fleeting alliances. Engage at the grassroots: Run for local councils, mentor in student unions, and use digital platforms to amplify citizen voices. Reject the seduction of “quick wins” through defections; true power lies in sustainable movements that outlast electoral cycles. As Yemi Adamolekun warns, citizens must defend democracy themselves youth, you are that vanguard.

Nigeria’s democracy is at a crossroads. The defection deluge isn’t destiny it’s a detour we can reverse. Let this be our wake-up: Rally for pluralism, punish opportunism, and reclaim the multiparty soul of our nation. The future isn’t APC’s birthright; it’s ours to seize, one principled vote at a time.