Nigerians should prepare for petrol prices to climb toward ₦1,500 per litre in the coming days or weeks as the ongoing U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran enters its second week with no sign of de-escalation, the National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), Dr. Billy Gillis-Harry, has warned.
Speaking on Channels Television’s The Morning Brief on Tuesday, March 11, 2026, Gillis-Harry explained that while the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has provided a consistent domestic supply of refined products averting outright scarcity the refinery’s ex-depot prices are still tied to volatile international crude benchmarks.
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He said: “The reality is that if you look at the volatility in the price from what we are seeing today, the Dangote Refinery is the salvation for us, due to the consistent source of product, which is much more important at this time than anything.
“The availability of product is much more important than pricing. The pricing we predicted has risen above ₦1,000 per litre, the other time, to ₦1,175 at the gantry. By the time we add the charges, logistics, and others, the price will get higher and higher. So, yes, ₦1,500 per litre is not far-fetched. It should not make us panic. It is better for us to have the product available, be able to do our business, and get some level of energy security than not having it.”
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Dangote Petroleum Refinery on Monday, March 10, 2026, announced its fourth consecutive ex-depot price increase in less than two weeks: Premium Motor Spirit (PMS/petrol): ₦1,175 per litre (up from ₦995/litre) Automotive Gas Oil (AGO/diesel): ₦1,620 per litre (up from ₦1,430/litre)
The hikes reflect the direct pass-through of global crude costs to domestic prices. As of 1:00 p.m. WAT on Monday:Brent crude: $102.8/barrel (+10.91%), WTI crude: $101.0/barrel (+11.08%)
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Since the conflict began on February 28, 2026: Brent has risen more than 60%, WTI has climbed over 75%
The surge is driven by: Near-total halt of commercial tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (one-fifth of global crude and gas flows).
Iranian missile/drone attacks on oil infrastructure and allied facilities in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, and Kuwait. QatarEnergy’s suspension of LNG and downstream production after strikes on gas plants. Production halts or reductions in Iraq (southern and Kurdistan regions) and parts of the UAE and Kuwait.
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Dangote Petroleum MD/CEO Devakumar Edwin (also known as David Bird in some reports) reiterated at a Monday press conference that even under the crude-for-naira arrangement, the refinery purchases Nigerian crude at international market prices and does not receive discounted supply.
Retail petrol prices at filling stations could exceed ₦1,300–1,500/litre once marketers and transporters factor in logistics, taxes, and margins. Diesel prices are likely to cross ₦1,700–1,800/litre in many locations. Higher transport costs will feed into food, goods, and services inflation nationwide.
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PETROAN urged Nigerians to remain calm, conserve fuel where possible, and avoid panic buying, while appealing to the Federal Government to consider emergency measures to cushion the impact on vulnerable households.
The Dangote Refinery had not issued a fresh public statement on the Monday revision as of press time.
DDNewsOnline – Lagos
By Ogungbayi Beedee Adeyemi
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