By Tony Iwuoma / Posted April 14, 2025
Without a doubt, Nigeria is teetering on the edge. Africa’s most populous country and one of its largest economies stands today at a perilous crossroads. From the bloody trails of bandits and Fulani herdsmen to the ever-widening ethnic and religious divides, the country seems to be unraveling with unnerving speed. For a nation founded on a shaky colonial consensus, layered with ethnic distrust, political manipulation and economic injustice, the question is no longer whether Nigeria will implode, but when and how.
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The escalating insecurity, the rising cry for self-determination, the seeming complicity or incompetence of the central government and the deep-seated resentment among southern groups, especially the South East, all paint a grim picture of a republic gasping for air. This is not just a political crisis, it’s a national emergency; one whose roots stretch far back into the questionable foundation of the Nigerian state.
Nigeria was never born out of a mutual desire by its diverse peoples to live together. Rather, it was a British colonial experiment in administrative convenience and economic expediency. In 1914, Lord Frederick Lugard amalgamated the Northern and Southern Protectorates by fiat with little regard for their ethnic, religious, or socio-cultural differences. It was not a marriage but a merger between two incompatible regions yoked together by colonial design.
This artificial fusion sowed the seeds of enduring discord. While the North remained largely feudal, Islamic and under indirect rule, the South was exposed to Western education, Christianity and urbanisation. These divergent developmental paths entrenched mutual suspicion and inequality. Post-independence, instead of fostering unity, political elite weaponised ethnicity, deepening the cracks of a fragile federation.
From independence in 1960 through the First Republic and into the present Fourth Republic, Nigeria has been plagued by ethnocentric politics. The three dominant ethnic groups, the Hausa-Fulani (a term used for convenience because the Fulani have eclipsed the real owners of the land) in the North, the Yoruba in the South West and the Igbo in the South East, have often viewed the state as a prize to be won for regional advantage, not a common heritage to be nurtured.
The 1966 coup and its bloody counter-coup, the Biafran War (1967–1970) and several ethno-religious riots are all testaments to Nigeria’s volatile mix. Power rotation among ethnic elites became a crude method of maintaining balance. Yet, this system has repeatedly failed to inspire national unity, instead fostering zero-sum politics, economic marginalisation and violent agitations.
The Hausa-Fulani political class, in particular, has been accused of harbouring hegemonic ambitions. From military dictatorships to democratic rule, the North has dominated the centre disproportionately, despite contributing the least to national revenue. Oil-rich but politically sidelined, the Niger Delta and South East have long cried foul; their grievances often met with brute force.
The latest incursion of Fulani herdsmen and banditry has held the country hostage. What began as farmer-herder clashes over grazing routes have metastasized into a full-blown national security nightmare. Armed Fulani herdsmen, many of whom are suspected to be foreign mercenaries, have unleashed terror on communities across the Middle Belt and the South. Villages have been sacked, farms destroyed, thousands killed, and many displaced.
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Simultaneously, bandits, largely operating from forest enclaves in the North, have turned entire regions into killing fields. From Kaduna to Zamfara, Katsina to Niger, these criminal gangs have kidnapped students, ambushed military convoys and collected billions in ransom. The line between terrorism, banditry and ethnic cleansing has become dangerously blurred.
The widespread belief, especially in the South, is that these attacks are not random but orchestrated to push a grander Fulani expansionist agenda. The silence, lethargy or selective response of the Federal Government, largely dominated by northern elites, has only fuelled this suspicion. When the government criminalises regional self-defense outfits like Amotekun in the South West or the Eastern Security Network (ESN) in the South East, while tolerating or excusing violent herdsmen, trust is shattered.
Nowhere is the sense of betrayal and disillusionment more intense than in Southern Nigeria, particularly the South East. The Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) , led by the detained Nnamdi Kanu, has reignited calls for secession, echoing the bitter memories of the Biafran War. Its desperate ill-advised weekly sit-at-home orders, violent clashes with security agencies, and widespread civil unrest have turned the South East into a boiling cauldron.
In the South West, the call is no longer for reform but restructuring, or outright Oduduwa Republic. Intellectuals, clerics, and traditional rulers alike are warning that the centre cannot hold. The Middle Belt, too, long used as a buffer zone, is increasingly aligning with the South, having borne the brunt of Fulani aggression without state protection.
Even within the North, there’s rising resentment. Indigenous communities in Kaduna and Plateau, for example, are being annihilated, yet government narratives still try to whitewash the atrocities as “communal clashes.” The refusal of the immediate past administration of Muhammadu Buhari to take drastic action against rampaging murderous herdsmen despite global indices only confirmed fears of ethnic bias and complicity.
It is baffling that the current government under President Bola Tinubu seems to be toeing the same path. Of course, he promised during electioneering that he would continue from where Buhari stopped. However, it was never envisaged that these atrocities would continue under his watch, even though he has shockingly, considering his antecedents, confiscated the key government positions for his Yoruba kinsmen like his predecessor did for his Fulani brethren, leaving the Igbo bereft and further amplifying Nigeria as a joke.
One of the gravest concerns is the Federal Government’s apparent helplessness or unwillingness to confront the security crisis head-on. Military operations are haphazard, making many wonder if the questionable role of the state is incompetence or collusion. Intelligence coordination is poor. Prosecution of terrorists and bandits are rare. Communities are often left to their fate. The security apparatchik has been largely compromised and many suspect that the Fulani, who are heading key military positions, may be unwilling to move against their kith and kin.
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This vacuum has led to the rise of ethnic militias, local vigilantes, and regional defence outfits. But these stopgap measures are no match for the sophistication of the attackers, many armed with AK-47s, RPGs and satellite phones. Meanwhile, the Nigerian state remains bogged down by corruption, nepotism and a bloated bureaucracy.
When the government prioritises silencing critics over securing citizens, when it grants amnesty to bandits but jails protesters, and when it builds rail lines to Niger Republic and at the same time, local infrastructure collapses, questions abound. Is the republic just incompetent or has it been hijacked?
Nigeria’s crisis is existential. The failure is not just of governance but of the very idea of Nigeria. The union becomes a burden without a shared vision, justice, equity and accountability. If the current trajectory persists, a violent breakup, state implosion or prolonged anarchy are all possible outcomes.
The international community, for its part, is beginning to take notice. Human rights reports are damning. Diaspora voices are growing louder. Global investors are pulling back. The centre is no longer just not holding; it is haemorrhaging. Nigeria is losing the moral, structural and institutional coherence that defines a functioning state.
Nigeria needs radical rethinking to avert the slide toward national disintegration. Restructuring Nigeria NOW to allow true federalism is non-negotiable. Let regions control their resources, maintain regional security and develop at their own pace. Fiscal autonomy and decentralised policing are non-negotiable.
Nigeria must uphold justice and equity by addressing protracted historical grievances and devolve power and ensure proportional representation across ethnic lines. Nigeria’s security architecture must also be overhauled and corruption within the military and police dismantled; embrace community-based policing while holding all groups equally accountable, whether herdsmen, militants or separatists. Like post-apartheid South Africa, Nigeria needs a national reckoning. Likewise, the wounds of the civil war, religious pogroms and state violence must be confronted and healed. Nigeria must reject ethnic jingoists and political jobbers.
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Nigeria may not have gone yet, but it is dangerously close. The republic, founded on fraud and sustained by fear, can no longer pretend all is well. The signs are ominous: Fractured trust, mass poverty, tribal supremacy and blood-soaked fields. To ignore these signs is to tempt fate.
History will not forgive a generation that watched a country burn while mouthing platitudes of unity. The time to act is now or the fraudulent republic will finally collapse under the weight of its contradictions. Going…going…how long before it is gone?
Note: This article was first published by The Sun.ng Newspaper.
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