Africa’s largest single-train refinery is preparing for one of Nigeria’s biggest capital market deals yet. Dangote Refinery plans to sell up to 10 per cent of its stake in an initial public offering that could raise around $5 billion, according to a Bloomberg report citing sources close to the transaction.
The 650,000-barrels-per-day facility, located in the Lekki Free Zone near Lagos, has transformed Nigeria’s fuel supply chain since beginning large-scale production, cutting the country’s dependence on imported petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel.
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Earlier valuations in late 2025 placed the refinery’s worth at between $20 billion and $25 billion. That figure has now nearly doubled to $40–$50 billion, reflecting stronger-than-expected operational performance and rising global demand for its refined products.
A senior executive at the Dangote Group confirmed to Bloomberg that the projected valuation aligns with internal expectations but declined to comment on timing or structure. The IPO will mark the first time the refinery is available for public ownership since it was commissioned in May 2023 after nearly a decade of construction and a $20 billion investment.
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By February 2026, the facility had reached full processing capacity of 650,000 bpd, making it the world’s largest single-train refinery and Africa’s biggest refining complex.
The Dangote Group has appointed a consortium of three financial advisers to manage the offering. Stanbic IBTC Capital, under the Standard Bank umbrella, will handle international book-building and engagement with foreign portfolio investors. Vetiva Capital Management, which advised on previous Dangote listings, will manage retail distribution within Nigeria, while FirstCap will focus on placements with Nigerian institutional investors, particularly pension funds.
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The IPO is anchored by an unprecedented dividend structure: investors can purchase shares in Nigerian naira but receive returns in US dollars, backed by an estimated $6.4 billion in annual petrochemical export revenues. The prospectus has already been submitted for regulatory review, with a subscription window expected to open by August 2026.
Commercial Outlook Strengthened by Exports and Demand
Rising global crude oil prices and stronger domestic fuel consumption have improved the refinery’s commercial outlook. Since beginning production of petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel, the plant has reshaped Nigeria’s fuel supply, now supplying over 90% of Nigeria’s petrol demand. It has also exported 456,000 tonnes of refined fuel to Ghana, Cameroon, Togo, Tanzania, and international markets, including Europe.
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Beyond fuels, the refinery produces petrochemical outputs like polypropylene for plastics manufacturing, packaging, and industrial components. This petrochemicals division represents a major standalone revenue stream and underpins the dollar dividend commitment.
Jet fuel exports alone surged 770% between 2024 and 2026, with Europe receiving roughly 70,000 barrels per day to offset supply disruptions linked to Middle East tensions.
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Group revenues across Dangote’s businesses have grown from $3.3 billion to $18 billion over the past five years, while EBITDA rose from $1.8 billion to $2.8 billion in the same period.
The facility is also supported by a 1,100-kilometre pipeline network, one of the largest globally, connecting crude supply lines to processing and distribution infrastructure.
Dangote recently indicated that Nigerian investors would soon have an opportunity to buy shares directly in the refinery business, signalling a broader push to attract domestic participation in the energy sector.
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If successful, the listing will fundamentally alter the scale and ambition of African equity markets, giving retail and institutional investors direct exposure to a $50 billion asset that processes crude for much of West Africa and beyond.
DDNewsOnline – Lagos
By Ayomiposi Adebanjo (A.A)
Business Correspondent
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